The Longest Shots

Most golf analyst dark horse and sleeper picks for the U.S. Open are pros the average golf fan has heard of: players like Keegan Bradley, Ben Griffin, Phil Mickelson, and Tommy Fleetwood. I’m looking for the longest of the long shots here–guys so far down the odds sheet that you might exceed the lost ball time limit searching for them.

“They can't ask you if you're a garbageman, or a bean picker, or a driving range pro whose check is signed by a stripper.  You qualify, you're in,” Roy McAvoy said of the U.S. Open in the 1996 film, Tin Cup. 

McAvoy called the U.S. Open “the most democratic of all the majors,” and each year, some relatively unknown qualifier works their way onto fans’ radar–even if for a brief moment. The U.S. Open is the ultimate test. For mini tour grinders and qualifiers, that test can be a painful wake up call.

My friend Willy Wilcox, who now caddies for Sung-jae Im (also a good sleeper pick), played the 2011 U.S. Open at Congressional Country Club. When we were playing on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021, I asked him if he planned on going to U.S. Open qualifying. He said no, so I asked why. “What would I do if I actually qualified?” he said. 

Those who have experienced it know it can be a deeply humbling experience. Just qualifying is a resume-worthy accomplishment. Making the cut is remarkable, especially for a qualifier without tour status. In his uplifting new book, The Playing Lesson: A Duffer’s Year Among The Pros, Michael Bamberger quotes Ben Hogan as saying, “I am the sole judge of my own standards.” Each player will measure success on his own terms at Oakmont this week. 

Let’s focus on some of the qualifiers who could make the cut, and perhaps make a McAvoy-like run this weekend. 

James Nicholas certainly has the charismatic personality and big screen looks to match Costner’s McAvoy. You won’t find a more likeable guy in golf. 

The 28-year-old has been around the world and through the mini tour trenches in pursuit of golf’s biggest stage, but you would rarely catch him without a genuine smile. While many social media stars master artifice, Nicholas provides an authentic look into his improvement and the grind. He’s made strides in his game every year since graduating from Yale, and spent last season on the DP World Tour, which he credits for his success at U.S. Open qualifying.

“The U.S. Open qualifier is like college golf on steroids,” said Nicholas on last week’s Any Given Monday podcast. “You’ve got 36-holes. It’s a mental and physical beast and when you’re coming down the stretch, it’s going to test your true game. And I really felt like my year last year on DP–with all the tight O.B. everywhere, and gorse bushes at the Irish Open and wind and rain –made me a more well-rounded player.” 

Nicholas has the intelligence and patience to navigate a U.S. Open. His journey has been one of perseverance, and it’ll take everything he’s learned to succeed at Oakmont. 

Another player who will demonstrate skills gained through years of resilience is 29-year-old Kent State alumnus, Chase Johnson, teeing it up in his first U.S. Open. Johnson left the Columbus final qualifying site as first alternate after falling short in a high-profile five-for-one playoff against Cameron Young, Max Homa, Eric Cole, and Ricky Fowler. Young emerged from the playoff but Johnson ended up also getting into the U.S. Open field. 

Johnson held full Korn Ferry Tour status in 2020 and 2021, and has played eight PGA Tour events, making three cuts. At the Genesis Invitational, Johnson navigated a tricky up-and-down at the 36th hole to advance to the weekend, earning $51,000. This year, Johnson won the Black History Month Classic on the APGA Tour for $7,500.  

When I first met Johnson back in 2021 on the Korn Ferry Tour, his caddie, Raymone Scott, sat down with me after a tournament round in Chicago. Ray was an organizer and instructor with the First Tee of Akron and wanted to know how he could be a better caddie for Chase. Ray was passionate, curious, and attentive. He expressed that Chase represented great hope for people and kids in his community. It was the first of many long conversations with Ray, and I wish I could have offered him better advice. Johnson lost his status that year and has chased qualifiers since, narrowly missing getting through the first and second stage of Q School in recent years. 

At the Auggie Invitational one year, a pro-am in Wichita, Kan., where the medalist earned a spot into the Wichita KFT event, a guy on Johnson’s pro-am team asked for some action on the first tee. Johnson thought that would be fun. What could this stranger possibly want to gamble for? Johnson couldn’t imagine it would be for much.

“We stepped up on the first hole and he’s like, ‘Chase, you want a game?’ ‘Yeah, sure,” Chase said. “I’m thinking like a ten, ten, twenty (dollar game). Two-down autos. He’s like ‘all right, we’re playing for a grand.’ I’m like, ‘wait, what? I don’t even have $300 bucks right now!’”

Johnson’s dad used to tell him the story of Lee Trevino learning to handle pressure by playing for $10 with only a five in his pocket. Johnson accepted the bet. “My bet was a little bit on the extreme scale from that. I think I ended up shooting eight-under in that round.” 

Johnson knows how to handle pressure. He’s also a big fan of the wizarding world of Harry Potter. He’ll need every bit of magic he can summon at Oakmont. 

A U.S. Open qualifier who is no stranger to money games and a career on the edge, is Brady Calkins. It’s been years since Calkins’ other major appearance at the 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club. It’s also been years since he warmed up for a Dakotas Tour event at the Cockatoo Gentlemen’s Club after a long night. 

Ryan French wrote an insightful piece on Calkins back then. French wrote, “Calkins grew up in Chehalis, Wash., a small, blue-collar burg in the western part of the state, the kind of town where barstools are filled with guys whose hands are covered in dirt or grease from an honest day’s work.” 

“He is unapologetically Brady,” a hometown fan said to French. “He represents Chehalis. The whole town is pulling for him.” Calkins once worked construction jobs for $65 an hour to get himself back out on the mini tours. He is hyper-competitive, whether playing against someone in a nassau or in a game of darts at the local dive. He became a legend on the long-running Dakotas Tour where he won tournaments more frequently than he missed cuts. 

The 30-year-old missed the cut in the U.S. Open the last time around, but so much has changed in his life. A gritty and tenacious player, unafraid of hard work, he’s the type of player who survives a U.S. Open. This time around, Calkins is in better shape to succeed.

From someone who seems to have lived multiple lives as a pro golfer, to a golf veteran who has never given up on his dream: 50-year-old Justin Hicks was co-medalist in the final stage of U.S. Open qualifying at Emerald Lakes in West Palm Beach. He co-medaled with 26-year-old Phillip Barbee, Jr., someone nearly half his age. 

The beauty of the U.S. Open is (usually) you can’t overpower it. Oakmont may not have any trees, but the wild rough protects against a bomb-and-gouge strategy. Players will have to think their way around the course. 

Hicks is a journeyman and spent six years on the PGA Tour, his last full season coming in 2016. He made $3 million on tour and racked up more Minor League Golf Tour wins than you can count. Now a full-time instructor at Stonebridge Country Club in Boca Raton, Hicks qualified for three PGA Tour events this year through the South Florida PGA Section. 

Hicks was co-leader in the opening round of the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines (remember the one where Tiger Woods won on one leg?).  Hicks didn’t score well in the following three rounds (80-75-78), but he played all 72 holes of a major and found some success on tour afterwards. Bamberger would quote Hogan here. 

Perhaps this is Hicks’ last dance, or maybe it’s just the opening tee shot on a new course. The same could be said for any of these players. The Champions Tour is on Hicks’ mind and he’ll have the chance to launch the next chapter of his golf career at Oakmont. 

Long before KFT member, Alistair Docherty, became a Barstool Sports-sponsored athlete, he was playing mini tour events on the Outlaw Tour around Phoenix in 2019. On the 7th hole at Grand Canyon University Golf Course, a dogleg-left par-4 that leads to a noisy street, Docherty hit the longest drive in our group. Mark Anguiano and I were riding in a cart together and played our second shots to the green. We were all a few under par and had the kind of momentum in the group that pushes each player to hit better shots.

As Docherty set up his approach shot in the fairway, Anguiano, perhaps the best mini tour player in the country at the time, said, “Alistair doesn’t know how good he is yet.” 

As I’ve watched Alistair’s improving results each year after that round, I’ve returned to Anguiano’s comment. Docherty finished tied for 2nd in the Myrtle Beach Classic last year on the PGA Tour, and missed earning his PGA Tour card by two spots on the KFT’s season-long points standings. He then missed earning his PGA Tour card by a single shot at Q School a couple months later. 

This season on KFT, he picked up where he left off, and now, Docherty is playing his first major. If you had shown Anguiano a highlight reel of Docherty’s future that day at GCU Golf Course, I don’t think it would have surprised him; it would likely have surprised Docherty.

That’s how long it takes. That’s the patience this profession requires. 

Perhaps by Sunday, Docherty, or one of these other players, will realize just how good they are.

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